Chasing chocolate dreams
Ghana will miss its 2024/25 cocoa target, expecting 600,000 tonnes. COCOBOD faces GHS33bn debt but anticipates profitability by 2028 through initiatives.
Ghana is set to miss its cocoa production target for the 2024/2025 season, with output currently at 590,000 metric tonnes, against a goal of 610,000 tonnes. COCOBOD CEO Dr. Ransford Abbey expects a maximum of 600,000 tonnes as the season nears its end. Despite this shortfall, Dr. Abbey expressed optimism for the 2025/2026 season, citing COCOBOD and government initiatives aimed at boosting yields and farmer motivation. Furthermore, COCOBOD aims to address its significant financial challenges, currently facing a debt of GHS33 billion. Dr. Abbey anticipates the organisation will return to profitability by the end of 2028, driven by improved production and planned cost-cutting measures.
Ghana, once a consistently reliable top producer, has now missed its cocoa production targets for the past three years, failing to surpass the one-million-tonne mark since 2021. This shortfall persists despite global cocoa prices remaining at historically high levels. Illegal mining and adverse weather conditions have severely disrupted farming, resulting in a decline in output across major growing regions.
Compounding this crisis, an estimated 120,000 tonnes of cocoa were smuggled out of the country last year. This contributed to a sharp drop in export revenues, which previously averaged around $2 billion annually. The decline in production and growing market risks have effectively shut Ghana out of the cocoa syndicated loan market. International cocoa buyers and lenders now perceive the country as high-risk, demanding steep premiums on loans. As a result, Ghana has struggled to secure the vital pre-export financing it once depended on.
The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), the state agency responsible for the sector, has incurred significant debt. Persistent losses have severely weakened its operational capacity and credibility in international markets.
Despite these significant challenges, Ghana has recently seen a sharp rebound in cocoa export revenues. The sector expanded by 3.4% in Q1 2025, with data from the Bank of Ghana indicating that inflows reached $1.84 billion in the first four months of 2025. This represents a more than threefold increase from the $579 million recorded during the same period last year, largely attributed to strong global prices and a shift away from large forward sales.
However, the underlying fundamentals remain worrying. Smuggling and illegal mining continue to shrink Ghana’s cocoa output, adding pressure to an already tight global supply chain. With demand remaining robust, particularly from major chocolate producers, concerns are mounting over long-term supply stability, leaving the global sweet tooth increasingly anxious.