Coalition crossroads
Peter Obi confirmed his 2027 presidential bid, pledging one term. An opposition coalition, including Atiku and El-Rufai, adopted ADC despite internal dissent and Amaechi's defection.
Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has confirmed his intention to contest the 2027 election, pledging to serve only one term in line with the South-North power rotation. He dismissed any alliance with Atiku Abubakar, stressing that coalitions must prioritise governance over power grabs. Meanwhile, an opposition coalition, including Atiku, Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai, has adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its 2027 platform, after delays in registering the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). However, internal dissent has erupted within ADC. Former Minister Rotimi Amaechi also quit the APC, condemning the state of Nigeria and joining the ADC launch.
As Peter Obi declares his intention to run in 2027, the outcome of the next presidential election may closely mirror that of 2023, with the incumbent, President Tinubu, possibly securing a larger share if current dynamics persist. A divided opposition will undoubtedly find it exceedingly difficult to unseat a sitting president. Several heavyweight politicians, including Atiku Abubakar from the Northeast, contenders from the Northwest, and others who have remained within the PDP—Nigeria’s second-largest political platform—still believe they stand a chance, despite the party's internal challenges.
While it is still early, the formation of an opposition coalition is a necessary, though not sufficient, step towards mounting a credible challenge to President Tinubu and the APC. Yet, this coalition is already revealing itself as a union of uneasy bedfellows. Although such alliances are not uncommon in Nigerian politics, the presence of multiple presidential hopefuls, notably Atiku and Peter Obi, presents an immediate hurdle. It is difficult to see either willingly stepping down for the other in the self-effacing manner Tinubu did for Buhari during the APC’s formation ahead of the 2015 elections. That, arguably, remains the coalition’s most fundamental obstacle. Moreover, Tinubu's well-established knack for exploiting fissures within the opposition is likely to come into play. Indeed, many of the opposition's moves thus far already carry the seeds of future division, and one can reasonably expect Tinubu to take full advantage. This will be the first true test of the opposition’s cohesion.
The cracks are already visible. Dumebi Kachikwu, former presidential candidate of the ADC, and a faction loyal to him have rejected the coalition’s adoption of the ADC platform, citing a lack of due process and questioning the legitimacy of its leadership. Such turbulence is not unexpected. Any coalition forged through fragile consensus is likely to be plagued by disputes over flagbearers, zoning, influence, and control of the political vehicle. The process of choosing a consensus candidate alone could splinter the alliance long before ballots are cast.
More intriguing, however, is the newly formed opposition coalition and whether it can genuinely unseat the APC’s formidable political machinery. That remains the billion-naira question. Early signs suggest the ruling party is, at the very least, somewhat rattled. Their public responses reveal a measure of unease, an implicit acknowledgement that 2027 may not be a repeat of the APC’s 2015 ascent or their 2023 survival. Yet, as we edge closer to the election, what we are likely to witness is a shift in focus from governance to politicking. Both the ruling party and the opposition will gradually sideline governance in favour of electioneering. Solving Nigeria’s many pressing problems will take a back seat to acquiring—or retaining—power.
Frankly, leading Nigeria at this juncture is not a role to be envied. The country is mired in its worst economic crisis in a generation, grappling with soaring inflation, escalating debt, a plunging naira, and public trust in institutions at a historic low. Against this backdrop, Mr Obi’s renewed commitment to run, anchored in a promise of political equity and a single term—on the premise that the South would have had just four years under Tinubu—may sound idealistic. However, it should not be mistaken for political purity. Four years is simply not enough time to steer a country out of such a deep crisis. Any genuine reformer would struggle to walk away after a single term, especially if some progress has been made. Like many before him, Obi would likely either be compelled by circumstance to seek re-election or rationalise a second term through the lens of correcting long-standing regional exclusion, particularly of the Southeast.
Peter Obi’s central role in this developing opposition bloc brings its own contradictions. Not too long ago, he was adamant that he would not be part of any coalition formed merely for the sake of seizing power. Now, he stands beside figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rauf Aregbesola—none of whom represent a decisive break from the old political order. Someone like El-Rufai, for example, remains a deeply polarising figure whose presence could dilute the goodwill Obi enjoys among his youthful, urban, and middle-class base—many of whom view him as a moral counterweight to traditional politics. This naturally raises the question of ideological coherence. Beyond the shared goal of defeating President Tinubu, can this coalition agree on anything of substance? Can it articulate a unified vision for Nigeria?
Ultimately, while this political realignment brings a welcome break from the tired APC-PDP binary, it is already echoing familiar patterns: ambition cloaked in patriotism, alliances driven by political arithmetic, and public declarations at odds with private negotiations. 2027 remains distant, but one certainty remains—Nigeria is entering another fevered political season, and, as is too often the case, the people may again find themselves not participants, but spectators.