Cracks in the broom
Nasir El-Rufai leaves APC for SDP, citing party's departure from founding principles.
Nasir El-Rufai, the former Governor of Kaduna State, has left the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the Social Democratic Party (SDP). This move comes after El-Rufai hinted at his leaving in a 24 February interview, citing the party’s failure to uphold its founding principles. El-Rufai, a founding member of the APC, expressed disappointment, stating that the party has “strayed” from its original vision. He emphasised his contributions to the APC, including helping secure election victories in 2015, 2019, and 2023. El-Rufai will now focus on building the SDP, engaging with other opposition leaders, and creating a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in future elections.
While anticipated, Mr El-Rufai’s departure from the APC marks a significant shift in Nigeria’s political landscape, particularly given the perceived breach of the understanding that his support for President Tinubu in 2023 would be reciprocated with a key ministerial role. The denial of this position and the simmering discontent within certain northern factions regarding Tinubu's perceived consolidation of power have likely accelerated El-Rufai's move. The expected influx of politicians into his coalition signals a potential realignment, yet faces formidable hurdles.
The inherent challenge lies in managing the coalition members' diverse and often conflicting ambitions. Unlike the strategic unity displayed by the APC in 2015, the current coalition risks fracturing under the weight of individual presidential aspirations. Furthermore, selecting the SDP as the political platform introduces a layer of complexity. The lingering perception that the SDP was a contingency plan for Tinubu's 2022 ambitions suggests that latent pro-Tinubu elements within the party could be activated to destabilise the coalition from within. This is especially relevant in a political climate where subtle destabilisation tactics are increasingly employed.
The regional dynamics are equally critical. Wary of another prolonged Southern presidency, Northern political figures are likely to favour a candidate limited to a single term. This constraint effectively narrows the field to Tinubu and, controversially, Goodluck Jonathan, whose potential return remains a subject of intense speculation. However, given the current political climate, it is difficult to see Dr Jonathan gaining the necessary support. The challenge for El-Rufai's budding coalition is to bridge the regional divide and present a credible alternative that can unify diverse interests. Without a cohesive strategy and a unified front, President Tinubu's path to re-election remains largely unobstructed, mirroring the challenges faced by previous opposition alliances in Nigeria's complex political landscape.