Epic fury, enduring consequences
The Iran strikes, global shockwaves, and Africa’s strategic reckoning.
The attack on Iran by the United States and Israel that commenced on 28 February 2026 represents a fundamental shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics with profound implications for Nigeria and the African continent. While initial tactical victories, including the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appear decisive, this conflict will unfold across three distinct phases. In the short term, the US-Israeli coalition will secure significant tactical achievements, but these gains will prove strategically deceptive as Iran’s institutional resilience enables sustained asymmetric retaliation. The medium term will bring severe global economic disruptions as oil markets convulse and the Strait of Hormuz emerges as a critical vulnerability. Over the long term, this conflict will accelerate America’s relative decline in the Middle East while empowering regional powers, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, as stabilising forces, with complex ripple effects across African conflict zones.
Iran’s “axis of resistance” is facing its most serious test, and for African countries with significant Shia minorities, including Nigeria, the risk of proxy activity increases as Tehran seeks new pressure vectors. The UAE’s heavy targeting suggests its involvement in Sudan and Ethiopia has not gone unnoticed, and a UAE forced to focus on home security may reduce its destabilising African footprint.
Successive Nigerian administrations have managed their relationships with the Middle East through careful neutrality, but this posture reflects institutional reality rather than strategic choice. The foreign ministry lacks resources for proactive diplomacy, leaving Nigerian citizens and economic interests vulnerable to events we could have anticipated but failed to prepare for.
The day after this conflict may prove more dangerous than the day before, as high-impact actions reshape incentives, identities and risk calculations across continents. By the close of 1 March 2026, this warning had already materialised: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacked an oil tanker within it, potentially sending oil prices toward unprecedented levels and confirming that the medium term economic shock phase had begun earlier than many anticipated. For Nigeria, the imperative is clear: we must understand these dynamics, prepare for their consequences and build the institutional capacity to navigate an increasingly volatile global environment, because the alternative of remaining passive recipients of shocks generated elsewhere has never been a strategy and will not become one now.