Loyal to the core
Governor Yusuf pledged loyalty to Kwankwaso, denied corruption, criticised the media, and promised investment in education and healthcare for Kano.
Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf has reaffirmed his allegiance to political mentor Rabiu Kwankwaso amid rumours of a shift to the APC. Addressing local councillors, Yusuf vowed to follow Kwankwaso’s lead, regardless of political party, and rejected claims that Kwankwaso receives state funds, dismissing former SSG Baffa Bichi’s accusations as baseless and “mentally unstable.” He denounced media attacks on political leaders and warned radio stations against inciting disrespect. Emphasising a corruption-free government, Yusuf pledged support for education, healthcare, and youth empowerment. He called on councillors to identify grassroots priorities, with the Kano Speaker urging cooperation for effective local governance.
Governor Abba Yusuf may dismiss rumours of his defection, but Nigeria’s recent political history suggests such moves are far from improbable. The past weeks have seen a dramatic reshaping of the political landscape ahead of the 2027 elections, with high-profile defections tilting the balance decisively in favour of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The constitutionally dubious suspension of the Rivers State government, followed by Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s defection to the APC, has set a precedent—one that now fuels speculation about Akwa Ibom’s Governor Umo Eno following suit.
These shifts have significantly weakened the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), leaving the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—which currently holds Kano—as one of the last remaining checks on APC dominance. Yet even this bastion may not hold. Nigeria has seen sitting governors defect before, most notably in 2013 when Rabiu Kwankwaso (then a PDP governor) and five others crossed to the APC amid internal PDP turmoil. This historical parallel makes Mr Yusuf’s potential defection—or that of his mentor Kwankwaso—a tangible threat to opposition unity.
The political shockwaves would be immense if Yusuf defected to the APC first. Kano, northern Nigeria’s most influential state, would likely revert to APC control, bolstering President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid. However, such a move risks alienating Yusuf’s base, particularly the fiercely loyal Kwankwasiyya movement. Sources suggest he may instead opt for a middle path: retaining the NNPP governorship while covertly supporting Mr Tinubu at the presidential level. This strategy, however, could fracture the NNPP, jeopardise its 18 House of Representatives seats, and invite legal challenges.
Alternatively, if Kwankwaso defects first, as rumours of his talks with Tinubu suggest, Yusuf would almost certainly follow, given his longstanding allegiance. Kwankwaso’s 2013 defection provides a clear blueprint, and delivering Kano’s political machinery to the APC would virtually guarantee Tinubu’s dominance in 2027. Yet this scenario carries its own risks. The reintegration of Kwankwaso and Yusuf could spark internal APC strife, particularly from factions aligned with National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, Mr Kwankwaso’s former deputy and longtime rival. A battle for control of Kano’s APC structure might ensue, destabilising the party ahead of the elections.
Either outcome would accelerate Nigeria’s slide into one-party hegemony, echoing the PDP’s dominance from 1999 to 2015. The NNPP’s collapse would leave only a fragmented PDP and the Labour Party as nominal opposition forces, further eroding democratic accountability. With voter turnout already at a historic low of 25% in 2023, such a consolidation risks deepening public disillusionment and civic disengagement.
This trend reflects a broader, more alarming shift in Nigerian politics: the emasculation of state governors. Once a formidable counterweight to federal overreach, governors have been systematically weakened by their failure to act collectively. Pursuing short-term gains over structural solidarity, they have enabled the centralisation of power, leaving Nigeria closer to a de facto federal dictatorship than at any point in its post-1999 democratic era.
Yusuf’s decision—whether to defect or stay—will reverberate far beyond Kano. It could determine whether Nigeria’s democracy retains even the faintest semblance of competitive politics or succumbs entirely to one-party rule.