Strong signals
Nigeria's telecommunications sector has bounced back, with active subscriptions increasing to 169.3 million in January 2025.
Nigeria’s telecommunications sector has rebounded, with active subscriptions rising to 169.3 million in January 2025 from 164.9 million in December 2024. MTN led the recovery with a 51.7% market share, while Airtel held 34.1%. This resurgence follows a sharp decline to 154.9 million in September 2024, caused by the deactivation of over 42 million SIM cards and sector rebasing. Despite setbacks, the industry regained momentum. Globacom showed signs of recovery, increasing its subscriber base to 20.5 million, while 9mobile stagnated at 3.2 million subscribers for three months, signalling continued struggles.
The recovery of Nigeria’s telecom sector underscores the enduring importance of mobile connectivity in Africa’s largest economy, where mobile phones remain vital for communication, financial services, and digital commerce. MTN, which commands a 51.7% market share, attributes its growth to continuous innovation in customer value offerings. Airtel, holding 34.1%, has also demonstrated resilience. Both operators accounted for over 95% of new subscriptions in January, deepening the divide between dominant players and struggling competitors.
While Globacom showed marginal recovery, 9mobile remains stagnant, raising concerns over its declining market relevance. This resurgence follows a sharp decline in 2024 when over 42 million SIMs were deactivated due to regulatory compliance measures. Reactivation efforts, rising data consumption, and modest improvements in smartphone penetration have contributed to the sector’s revival. However, smartphone adoption remains slow, limiting the full potential of mobile broadband expansion.
Despite this recovery, significant challenges persist. Rising operational costs—driven by inflation, soaring energy prices, and a weakened naira—have put financial pressure on telecom operators. In response, regulators approved a tariff increase of up to 50% last year, which has since been implemented. While this adjustment has helped cushion revenue losses, it risks dampening future growth if consumer spending further weakens.
Service quality also remains a concern. There are widespread reports of dropped calls, inconsistent data speeds, and network congestion, particularly among Glo and 9mobile users. Moreover, market leaders like MTN have faced regulatory scrutiny over service reliability. As competition narrows and market consolidation intensifies, the long-term sustainability of Nigeria’s telecom sector will depend on operators’ ability to balance affordability, service quality, and profitability in an increasingly challenging economic environment.
Nigeria’s telecom market has effectively evolved into a duopoly, with MTN and Airtel—the original industry players—emerging as the dominant forces. However, the two later challengers, Globacom and 9mobile, which once posed a solid competitive threat, have largely faded into the background. With rising tariffs helping operators offset cost pressures, the industry’s leading players are expected to continue posting strong financial results. However, regulators must ensure operators invest adequately in network infrastructure to support further growth and enforce stricter penalties for poor service quality. Nigerians deserve reliable telecom services that justify the premium prices they are paying.