The battle for Goma
M23 rebels seized Goma, sparking protests and escalating tensions, prompting calls for urgent UN action.
Rwandan-backed M23 rebels entered Goma, eastern Congo’s largest city, on Monday, with conflicting reports on control. The Congo River Alliance claimed full control, while the Congolese army asserted dominance over 80% of the city. UN peacekeepers faced heavy fire, and reports indicated Rwandan troops’ presence. Meanwhile, in Kinshasa, protesters attacked the embassies of France, Belgium, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, and the U.S., denouncing international inaction. France condemned the attacks as "unacceptable." UN chief António Guterres spoke with the DRC and Rwandan presidents over the escalating crisis, as the UN Security Council scheduled another emergency meeting.
The capture of Goma, the capital of North Kivu, marks a critical turning point in the ongoing conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This is the first time since 2012 that the M23 rebels, initially formed as a breakaway faction of Rwandan-backed fighters from the Congolese army, have seized the city. Since 2022, the group has made steady gains, capturing and seizing town after town in its push through eastern DRC.
This latest offensive, however, is distinct—not just in its scope but in the brazen nature of Rwandan involvement, as Kigali no longer makes any real effort to distance itself from the rebels’ actions. The United Nations accuses Rwanda of deploying between 3,000 and 4,000 troops in the DRC, with hundreds of incursions into Congolese territory recorded since 2023. In previous escalations, President Paul Kagame denied any involvement, blaming Kinshasa for the instability despite witnesses reporting seeing Rwandan military uniforms among M23 fighters.
However, the tides have shifted, and no one seriously believes in Rwandan innocence anymore. Beyond keeping its larger neighbour trapped in perpetual insecurity, Rwanda’s actions in eastern DRC have a clear economic motive. Despite having no domestic gold reserves, Rwanda exported an estimated 15,000 to 16,000 kilograms of gold to the UAE in 2023 alone, with the last quarter accounting for 3,158 kilograms. This trade was valued at around $885 million, reflecting a significant increase in Rwanda’s gold exports. In 2024, the UAE reported receiving approximately $885 million worth of gold from Rwanda—a 75% increase from the previous five-year average—suggesting 16,000 to 18,000 kilograms exports. These figures underscore a growing economic relationship between Rwanda and the UAE centred around gold, which does not originate from Rwanda but from the Congo.
The international response to Rwanda’s role in this crisis has been muted. While MONUSCO peacekeepers have suffered casualties, there is little appetite among global powers to rein in Kigali. The East African Community’s (EAC) peacekeeping force has been fractured, with Ugandan troops expelled in 2023 by the DRC government for allegedly backing the M23 in resource extraction. Meanwhile, the new government in Washington appears less inclined to compel a change in Rwandan behaviour, given its transactional approach to foreign relations.
Yet, if the political will existed, the international community would have powerful leverage: freezing Rwandan aid and funding could be instrumental in forcing Kigali to reconsider its support for M23. Approximately 12.7% of Rwanda’s current budget is funded by foreign aid, with external support—grants and loans—accounting for about 36% of the total budget. The web of foreign economic interests in the Congo presents an opportunity to press Kigali for de-escalation.
However, securing the rebels’ withdrawal to their pre-2025 strongholds is more complicated. The fall of Goma to the M23 rebels marks a significant escalation, highlighting the fragile and volatile nature of the region. The competing narratives—Kinshasa claiming control over parts of the city, while M23 asserts near-total dominance—underscore the fluidity of the situation and the entrenched hostilities between the DRC and Rwanda. Goma is a strategic prize. As a major commercial hub near the Rwandan border, its capture grants M23 military and political leverage. Losing the city would be a symbolic blow to Kinshasa and a logistical disaster—Goma serves as a critical gateway for humanitarian aid, trade and regional governance.
The UN’s struggle to maintain control of key positions, such as the airport and peacekeeping base, raises concerns about the ability of international forces to prevent a wider collapse. Beyond the battlefield, public frustration in Kinshasa is boiling over. Protests targeting embassies reflect widespread anger at what many Congolese see as international complicity or indifference. The attack on the French embassy is particularly notable, given France’s historical entanglements in Central African geopolitics and its complicated relationship with Rwanda since the 1994 genocide. Diplomatic outrage has also been directed at Belgium, the U.S., and regional actors like Uganda and Kenya—countries accused of either failing to pressure Rwanda sufficiently or, worse, turning a blind eye to its role in the crisis.
The situation raises urgent questions. First, how will Kinshasa respond militarily? If the Congolese army, already stretched thin, fails to reclaim Goma, the conflict could spiral further, emboldening other armed groups in the region. Second, what role will regional actors play? The EAC has struggled to broker peace, and Rwanda’s alleged involvement threatens to destabilise the entire Great Lakes region. Third, will the UN and Western powers step in decisively?
While the UN Security Council has convened an emergency meeting, Vivian van de Perre, Deputy Head of MONUSCO, has emphasised that military action alone cannot resolve the crisis. Instead, she has called for the resumption of the Luanda Process under Angola’s leadership to de-escalate tensions and prevent a full-scale regional war. Ultimately, the battle for Goma is not just about territorial control. It is a proxy conflict with deep historical, economic, and ethnic dimensions. If left unchecked, it risks triggering a larger regional war, worsening the already dire humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC. To prevent further escalation, the international community must take decisive steps—applying diplomatic pressure on Rwanda, increasing military support for Kinshasa, and ensuring that the resources fueling this war are no longer exploited with impunity. The window for action is rapidly closing.