The Week Ahead - Planning for the future
Sahel violence escalates with mass graves and massacres, yet African leaders focus on elections, reserves, and tax reforms.
From Adamawa’s charred villages to Congo’s mass graves, the Sahelian frontier is burning. Amidst this, Nigeria calmly reschedules its elections, Ghana aims for gold-plated reserves, and Tinubu promotes his tax guru. Oil prices spike, cocoa tensions cool, and everyone prays the Strait of Hormuz holds. Because in Africa, we plan for the future while the present keeps trying to kill us.
Chart of the week
ICYMI
The world changed a week ago when Israel and the United States attacked Iran. Operation Epic Fury will have enduring consequences as oil prices spike and the Strait of Hormuz closes, triggering a prolonged global economic shockwave.
Podcast
Nigeria faces surging fuel prices, escalating insurgent attacks killing dozens, and a rescheduled 2027 election timeline, according to INEC.
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What we are following this week
Oil prices climbed after strikes on Iran and QatarEnergy shutdowns disrupted Middle East markets. Meanwhile, Nigeria reviewed its Petroleum Industry Act to boost federation revenues and split the disputed OPL 245 block into four assets, potentially unlocking major deepwater reserves for Eni and Shell.
Gunmen killed at least 25 people in coordinated attacks on Adamawa villages near the Sambisa Forest, also claiming three soldiers’ lives. The assault reflects a broader regional escalation, with border triangle conflict deaths rising 262 percent. Nigerian troops recently repelled similar ISWAP assaults in Borno, killing several fighters.
Nigeria’s electoral commission moved the 2027 presidential and National Assembly polls to 16 January, with governorship elections set for 6 February. The adjustment follows the new Electoral Act 2026, which introduced revised timelines. Party primaries will occur from April to May 2026.
President Tinubu nominated Taiwo Oyedele, architect of Nigeria’s tax overhaul, as Minister of State for Finance. The appointment follows record VAT collections of $780 million in January, up 18.5 percent, as the new revenue-sharing formula directs most proceeds to state and local governments.
Parliament approved Ghana’s first framework for rapidly building international reserves, targeting 15 months of import cover by 2028. Finance Minister Forson said the gold-backed strategy shifts away from short-term borrowing. Analysts forecast modest cedi depreciation, supported by GH¢750m in monthly gold inflows and assistance from the IMF and the World Bank.
The Ivory Coast moved to stabilise its cocoa sector after falling prices sparked tensions, confirming it will purchase 100,000 metric tons at a guaranteed price. Traders resumed buying after regulators agreed to align mid-crop sales with global markets, while the government maintained its $400-per-ton income protection for farmers.
Two mass graves containing at least 171 bodies were discovered in eastern Congo following the M23 rebel withdrawals. The United States responded by sanctioning Rwanda’s Defence Force and four commanders, accusing Kigali of supporting the rebels—allegations Rwanda firmly denies amid a worsening humanitarian crisis.