Victory by any means
Nigeria’s Supreme Court upheld APC’s Okpebholo as Edo gubernatorial candidate, dismissing PDP’s appeal. Separately, APC dominated Lagos LG polls, winning nearly all seats.
On 10 July 2025, Nigeria’s Supreme Court dismissed an appeal by the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) Asue Ighodalo challenging Monday Okpebholo’s nomination as the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate in Edo State. The ruling upheld the Court of Appeal’s earlier decision, conclusively affirming Okpebholo’s candidacy and ending a prolonged legal dispute. In a separate development, the APC secured a sweeping victory in Lagos State’s local government elections, winning all 20 local government and 37 LCDA chairmanship seats, as well as 375 of 376 councillorship positions. The PDP claimed just one seat, reflecting the APC’s continued grassroots dominance in Lagos.
The Nigerian Supreme Court’s verdict sends a troubling message to Nigeria’s political class: securing a favourable declaration of victory, seemingly by any means, now appears sufficient to gain judicial validation. This marks the culmination of a concerning reversal that can be traced back to the precedent set when Imo's Rochas Okorocha allegedly held a returning officer hostage until he was declared the winner of an election—an outcome that ultimately stood. Previously, the electoral system had been tightened to compel politicians to campaign, mobilise voters, and win elections through some semblance of legitimacy. That imperative now appears to have faded, replaced by a perception among political actors that the electorate's will is increasingly inconsequential. The expected result is more brazen manipulation of electoral outcomes, with political players growing confident of judicial endorsement. The long-term risk is profound: the erosion of public trust in the electoral process and the emergence of leaders who, though technically "elected," lack genuine legitimacy.
The Court’s dismissal of Asue Ighodalo’s appeal against Monday Okpebholo’s nomination as the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate in Edo State removes a major legal impediment ahead of a high-stakes election in one of southern Nigeria’s few genuinely competitive states. Following a series of affirmations by lower courts, the Supreme Court’s ruling reinforces party discipline and internal cohesion within the APC. Edo State holds symbolic significance due to its history of defying national partisan trends, and the judgement now shifts the contest squarely to the political field, removing lingering ambiguity around candidate legitimacy.
For the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the failed legal challenge reflects both a narrowing tactical landscape and a diminishing reliance on the courts as a means of political redress. Historically, the judiciary has functioned as an alternative venue for resolving electoral disputes. Yet, the current environment suggests a bench increasingly unwilling to intervene in intra-party affairs—particularly where procedural norms appear to have been followed. The APC, by contrast, gains from this legal clarity, enabling it to consolidate messaging and campaign resources around a unified, unchallenged candidate.
This judicial victory complements recent electoral success in Lagos State, where the APC secured all 20 local government chairmanships, all 37 Local Council Development Area (LCDA) seats, and 375 of 376 councillorships. While the PDP’s lone win in Ward D, Yaba, stands as a symbolic exception, the broader picture is one of overwhelming APC dominance—rooted in entrenched political structures and control over local governance, a critical layer for political mobilisation, resource distribution, and grassroots experimentation.
However, these results must be interpreted with caution. The Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC), like many state-level electoral bodies in Nigeria, lacks the institutional independence and perceived credibility of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). State elections have long been marred by allegations of voter suppression, low turnout, and a dearth of competitive choice. While the APC’s performance is numerically dominant, the electoral process itself may not accurately reflect the will of the electorate.
Indeed, since President Goodluck Jonathan signed Nigeria's 2010 Electoral Act, voter turnout has steadily declined across all election types. Off-cycle governorship elections consistently show lower participation, exemplified by Anambra's 2021 historic low of 10.3%, though states like Osun occasionally fare better. Local government elections, such as Lagos's 2025 poll with under 20% turnout, highlight significant apathy. While initially higher (53.7% in 2011), federal and state elections fell to below 30% by 2023. This decline, most pronounced in the Southeast, reflects distrust, security concerns, and logistical issues.
The developments in Edo and Lagos illustrate a broader national trend: the APC is consolidating institutional and political power through both legal affirmation and electoral control. With the 2027 general elections on the horizon, these twin victories—judicial and political—offer the party significant strategic depth and momentum. For the opposition, the implications are stark. Without significant grassroots rebuilding and credible alternatives, symbolic wins and legal manoeuvres will remain insufficient to alter Nigeria’s current political trajectory. Should this trend of declining participation continue, Nigeria's democracy faces a dire future, with dwindling numbers severely undermining government legitimacy and the very foundation of its democratic process. The legitimacy deficit—both perceived and real—risks widening, with consequences for electoral participation, political stability, and the quality of democratic governance, demanding urgent systemic reforms to restore trust and engagement.