The week ahead - A bust alternator
Tinubu blames costly loans as insecurity hits business confidence. Politics heats up, cocoa farmers riot, and Ebola spreads.
President Tinubu blames high borrowing costs for Nigeria’s fiscal squeeze, even as tax reforms aim to jump-start the economy’s engine. But it appears that the crisis fuel is hitting business confidence, which is limping at 3.9 points due to insecurity. Meanwhile, politics is heating up: Oyo's governor eyes Aso Rock even as bandits raid a school in his state, and the Rivers governor shelves his reelection plans. Across the region, Ghana’s recovery masks rising debt, in Côte d’Ivoire, cocoa farmers riot, and Ebola crosses frontiers. It looks like the alternator is busted.
Chart of the week
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Ebola is under control in the DRC, but Rwanda keeps its borders tight. Ivorian cocoa farmers riot over payments as prices crash. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s INEC closes the defection window, Fubara drops out, and Makinde joins a crowded presidential race.
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On News Central's Business Edge, SBM Intelligence partner, Cheta Nwanze, noted that after 81 days of conflict, Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz with a Bitcoin maritime insurance scheme, keeping oil markets and supply chains under pressure while US ceasefire intentions remain unclear.
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What we’re following this week
With INEC’s 30 May primary deadline approaching, only digitally registered party members can contest. Rivers Governor Fubara has withdrawn from the 2027 governorship race, while Oyo’s Makinde declares for president under an opposition alliance. Peter Obi pledges a single term if elected.
Renewed security challenges hit Nigeria as gunmen abducted more than 100 pupils and school staff in Borno and Oyo states, with attackers reportedly using children as human shields. Meanwhile, Nigerian troops backed by the United States killed 175 Islamic State militants in the northeast.
Insecurity is the biggest operational challenge for Nigerian businesses, scoring 74.1 in the CBN’s April 2026 survey. High taxes and interest rates add pressure. The confidence index stands at 3.9, signalling cautious optimism. Employment expectations remain weak in manufacturing, while mining shows strength amid rising energy and exchange-rate costs.
President Tinubu announced that Nigeria will spend $11.6 billion servicing debt in 2026, nearly half of projected government revenue, warning that high borrowing costs crowd out infrastructure and social spending. Speaking in Nairobi, he defended the removal of fuel subsidies and currency reforms. A compulsory 13‑digit Tax ID system has also been launched nationwide.
Ghana’s economy expanded 7.7% year-on-year in February, buoyed by mining, manufacturing, finance, trade and telecommunications, while agriculture slowed. The growth coincides with the country’s exit from an IMF programme, though citizens remain worried about high living costs, tariffs and inflation. Public debt reached $58 million.
Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector faces unrest as farmers demonstrate over unpaid harvest payments and a 57% price collapse. Police used tear gas in M’Batto. A civil society group has called for an audit of the Coffee-Cocoa Council, citing weak price stabilisation and poor transparency.
WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern after an Ebola outbreak spread across eastern DRC and into Uganda. With no approved vaccine, Rwanda closed its border with Goma, disrupting trade. Barrick Mining has tightened screening at its Kibali gold mine as a precaution.