The week ahead - Finding a working power socket
Regional instability in West Africa contrasts with Nigeria's domestic economic measures, while international peace efforts falter against enduring conflict.
West Africa is busy. Benin sees a coup, prompting neighbours to send jets to foil it. Meanwhile, Nigeria pays off gas debts to boost power, projects a tighter budget, and allows citizens to withdraw more cash—just in case they need to flee a coup. America visits to discuss security, Ghanaian farmers beg for cheaper loans, and a U.S.-brokered Congo-Rwanda mineral deal collapses amid a fresh artillery barrage. The moral? It’s easier to sign a peace agreement than to find a working power socket.
Chart of the week
Podcast
West Africa faces a coup and a diplomatic rift, testing regional alliances. Simultaneously, Nigeria navigates US security talks, while a fragile Congo-Rwanda peace deal is immediately challenged by renewed fighting.
Listen here, or search for “SBM Intelligence, the week ahead” on your preferred podcast platform.
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Last week, our partner, Cheta Nwanze, attended Nairametric’s Drinks & Mics and offered expert insights into Nigeria’s insecurity, geopolitics, and their impact on the Naira.
What we are following this week
Benin’s government thwarted a coup, arresting plotters after gunfire in Cotonou. Nigeria deployed troops at Benin’s request, as ECOWAS activated a force. Tensions were compounded by a dispute between Nigeria and the Sahel alliance over an unauthorised military aircraft landing in Burkina Faso.
US congressional representatives met Nigeria’s security adviser in Abuja to strengthen security cooperation and conduct a fact-finding mission. The talks addressed counter-terrorism and US concerns about religious persecution, a claim Nigeria rejects as misleading and inflammatory.
Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. It projects lower federal revenue and allocations, based on conservative oil and exchange-rate benchmarks. The plan emphasises capital spending for growth alongside new international development funding.
Nigeria approved $128 million to pay off gas producers' debts through a royalty offset, aiming to end power shortages and revive investment. Separately, national oil output reached 355,000 barrels per day, its highest since 1989, supporting ambitious production targets.
The Central Bank of Nigeria will increase cash withdrawal limits for individuals and businesses from January 2026 to reduce handling costs. Concurrently, it has approved only 82 foreign exchange operators, a major regulatory clean-up after revoking thousands of licences last year.
The head of Ghana’s farmers’ association urges the government to slash agricultural loan rates to 2%, calling current rates prohibitive. He champions local produce but warns imported goods threaten staples like onions, calling for public support to ensure food security.
The US brokered a critical minerals and peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, hailed as a diplomatic win. However, violent clashes with M23 rebels resumed instantly, with Congo accusing Rwanda of bad faith, casting severe doubt on the agreement’s prospects.