The Week Ahead - Headline-generating upheaval
West Africa's economies show strength with Ghana's cedi rallying and Nigeria's trade surplus, yet political shifts and protests dominate the headlines.
From Ghana’s soaring cedi to Nigeria’s trade surplus and fresh tax laws, West Africa’s economies are rallying. Yet politics dominates: Peter Obi jumps ship in preparation for next year’s elections, while the Ivory Coast’s ruling party tightens its grip. Elsewhere, Somalia protests Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, and there appears to be an attraction to Nigeria by Islamists following America’s Christmas present. So, while treasuries brim and currencies climb, the region’s true growth industry appears to be headline-generating upheaval.
Chart of the week
Podcast
The U.S. makes bold moves in Nigeria and Venezuela as African nations navigate competing ties with China and Russia. Domestically, Nigeria pushes controversial new taxes amid public tension.
Listen here, or search for “SBM Intelligence, the week ahead” on your preferred podcast platform.
ICYMI
Our recent analysis argues that US military actions in Venezuela and Nigeria signal a new, unilateral foreign policy. This shift risks undermining global rules and creating a more volatile world for investment.
What we are following this week
Geopolitics is in the air as thousands protested in Somalia against Israel’s plan to recognise Somaliland’s independence. Concurrently, Botswana pursued Russian investment, Ethiopia advanced its debt restructuring, and China’s foreign minister began a strategic tour of eastern and southern African nations.
At least nine Nigerian soldiers were killed in Borno State after their convoy hit a landmine and faced gunfire from ISWAP militants. This follows recent US-Nigerian airstrikes in Sokoto, underscoring the persistent terrorist threat across multiple regions.
Nigeria’s new tax regime is now fully operational, implemented on time despite earlier controversy over legislative changes. Officials have introduced a streamlined filing system and public guidance clinics, marking a major shift in the nation’s fiscal framework.
Former Labour presidential candidate Peter Obi defected to the African Democratic Congress, aligning with a coalition for the 2027 elections. He emphasised early preparation and legal compliance to avoid past pitfalls and strengthen the opposition’s competitiveness.
In Q3 2025, Nigeria posted a $4.6bn balance-of-payments surplus, reversing a prior deficit. This was fuelled by rising crude oil and refined product exports, robust diaspora remittances, and increased foreign capital, boosting external reserves to $42.77bn.
Ghana’s economy saw a robust recovery in 2025. The cedi appreciated 41% against the dollar, its first annual gain in decades, while foreign reserves reached a record $13.8 billion, paving the way for an IMF exit.
The Ivory Coast’s ruling RHDP consolidated power by winning a large parliamentary majority. The president’s brother is expected to become the National Assembly head, centralising control further. A major US health agreement also underscored ongoing governance continuity and foreign partnerships.