The Week Ahead - Everything must go
Africa peddles assets, ends boycotts; Nigeria courts China, Ghana's inflation low but hunger high; Ivory Coast sells bonds, gas flows.
Nigeria is peddling assets and, alongside RSA, is courting the Chinese. Meanwhile, the country’s parliament is trying to make e-voting optional, while a secessionist group removes an economic chokepoint as it belatedly realises that boycotts do not balance budgets. Meanwhile, Ghana has the dilemma of inflation at 3.8 percent and food insecurity at 38 percent. Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea merge gas, Côte d’Ivoire hoovers up cocoa and sells bonds, and Mali takes the lead in state mining. From garage sales to gas deals, Africa’s motto is everything must go, including Monday.
Chart of the week
Podcast
After public uproar, Nigeria’s Senate amended the Electoral Act to allow non-mandatory electronic transmission, but will this safeguard transparency? Separately, asset sales from 2026 aim to reduce the ₦25 trillion deficit, but can they deliver long-term stability or only short-term relief?
Meanwhile, Nigeria and South Africa deepen economic ties with China, raising questions about whether this drives sustainable growth or economic dependence.
Listen here, or search for “SBM Intelligence, the week ahead” on your preferred podcast platform.
Video
In this video, we take a quick look at how Islamist militant groups like JNIM and Islamic State affiliates are expanding from the Sahel into coastal West Africa. Their growth stems from governance failures that require political solutions beyond military force alone.
ICYMI
We went into the field to find out what Nigerians think about the tax reforms. Trust is pretty low. Our head of insights, Victor Ejechi, was on CNBC to discuss this during the week.
What we are following this week
Nigeria’s NNPC sought a Chinese partner to take an equity stake and operate one of its long-shuttered refineries. South Africa, meanwhile, signed a framework trade agreement with China, securing duty-free access for selected exports, part of its effort to diversify after the US imposed 30 percent tariffs.
Nigeria’s Senate amended the Electoral Act after widespread criticism, allowing non-compulsory electronic transmission of results and retaining Form EC8A for internet failures. It halved the election notice period, shortened candidate-list deadlines, and increased penalties for vote-buying. A harmonisation committee will reconcile the bill.
The Indigenous People of Biafra has permanently cancelled the Monday sit-at-home in southeast Nigeria after detained leader Nnamdi Kanu asked residents to resume normal life. The weekly protest, begun in 2021, was violently enforced, causing economic disruption and school closures.
Nigeria plans to sell selected state-owned assets from this year to bridge a $18.5 billion budget deficit and draw fresh capital. Finance Minister Wale Edun announced the move at the AlUla conference. It supports President Tinubu’s reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, currency liberalisation, and tax changes.
Ghana’s inflation dropped to 3.8% in January 2026, the lowest since 2021, marking 13 months of decline. Yet food insecurity climbed to 38.1%, disproportionately hitting rural and female-headed households, highlighting a stark disconnect between macroeconomic gains and everyday living standards.
Côte d’Ivoire doubled weekly cocoa buying to 20,000 tonnes to absorb excess beans, reassure farmers and counter weak demand. Weather aided crop prospects, while the government exceeded its Treasury bond target, signalling investor confidence and setting a slightly lower cashew price that may be revised.
With 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea signed an operating agreement for joint Yoyo-Yolanda development, merging licences to clear hurdles. Chevron will process gas at Punta Europa, boosting energy ties, jobs and exports despite environmental concerns.
Mali has created a state-owned entity, Sopamim, to oversee the government's equity in mines following a 2023 code revision that increased gold revenues by over 50%. Botswana, facing softening diamond sales, launches a new firm to explore critical minerals and ease fiscal strains.