The week ahead - Needing therapy
Ebola spreads in DRC, Ghana loses $1.7bn on gold, Nigeria's chaos continues, Dangote saves Europe's jet fuel.
The DRC's Ebola outbreak is spreading fast – no vaccine, no treatment, and prisoners released to rebels could make it worse. In West Africa, Ghana spent $1.7 billion buying gold and yet lost money on it, which is the economic equivalent of burning your house down to stay warm. Next door, two tanks made a 15-day journey from Abidjan to a brewery in Burkina Faso, which is either a logistics triumph or the most elaborate way to ship beer ever attempted. Not to be outdone, Nigeria had the army declare terrorists wanted, watched ten police officers die in Kebbi, saw Osun's governor go to court against the anti-corruption watchdog, discovered Geregu Power can't pay a $28 million bond, and watched Dangote quietly become Europe's favourite jet fuel supplier. The week's one unambiguous win is Dangote. Everything else is a therapy session waiting to happen.
Chart of the week
Four in five Nigerians would relocate for a good job; one in five would do so without hesitation. Six Zones, One Crisis surveyed 1,180 people across all six zones to show exactly who is leaving, which region is bleeding talent fastest, and why.
Podcast
This week, Veronica and Confidence discuss Nigeria targeting ISWAP leaders while suffering a deadly clash in Kebbi, while the DRC freed prisoners to M23 rebels amid the Ebola outbreak. Listen here.
Video
Six months before Nigeria's 2027 elections, three warning signs have emerged: institutional pressure on political competition, judicial battles over party registration, and church-state confrontation. The Osun State governorship poll tomorrow will serve as a critical test of whether the system can hold.
What we are following this week
In a busy week in Nigeria’s energy sector, Dangote Refinery became Europe’s largest jet fuel supplier for a second consecutive month. Nigerian airlines faced over $42 million in debt amid high fuel costs. The government plans to list NNPC on the NGX, while President Tinubu approved $50 billion in tax incentives for deepwater oil investment.
Geregu Power Plc has defaulted on its ₦40.09 billion bond, missing its eighth coupon payment and fourth principal repayment. A turbine maintenance programme halved power generation, cutting revenue by 78.7% and profit by 88%. Shares have fallen 27.7% this year. Analysts expect recovery after maintenance.
The Osun State Government is challenging the EFCC in court over the freezing of its bank accounts, linked to $7.8 million in suspected diverted funds. Governor Adeleke called the action unlawful and politically motivated ahead of the governorship election. President Tinubu ordered the EFCC to reverse the restriction and seek a court order.
Nigeria has declared top ISWAP leaders, including governor Abu Musa Al-Mangawi Baa Shuwa and his deputy, wanted after recovered terrorist equipment revealed key hideouts in Borno. Meanwhile, clashes in Kebbi State left 10 police officers, 17 bandits and two civilians dead, underscoring ongoing security challenges across Nigeria’s northwest and northeast.
Ghana’s Domestic Gold Purchase Programme recorded losses exceeding $1.7 billion in 2025, weakening the central bank’s balance sheet. The government plans to introduce a national traceability system to track gold from small-scale miners, verifying legal and responsible production, including checks for mercury use and child labour, to improve market access.
AGL Côte d’Ivoire and AGL Burkina Faso have delivered two 50-ton industrial tanks from the Port of Abidjan to BRAKINA near Ouagadougou. The 15-day journey, involving over 40 employees, overcame infrastructure and cross-border challenges. The delivery underscores the Abidjan-Ouagadougou corridor’s strategic role in supporting Burkina Faso’s industrial development and regional trade.
The DRC is battling its second-largest Ebola outbreak on record, with over 4,000 confirmed cases and 1,850 deaths across five provinces. Delayed detection, conflict and weak surveillance have worsened the crisis. Authorities released 15 prisoners to the M23 rebel group under a peace deal and cleared a riverboat after negative Ebola tests.
Media mentions
This week, SBM Intelligence’s data and analysis featured prominently across international and Nigerian media.
Reuters cited the firm’s research on the deepening cost-of-living crisis in Nigeria as the 2027 election approaches, quoting both the SBM Jollof Index and the SBM Voter Sentiment Tracker. A BusinessDay report highlighted SBM’s findings that Nigeria’s labour market is fragmented into six distinct regional crises, requiring targeted policy interventions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. Nairametrics also covered the report’s key finding that healthcare, technology and agriculture are the most desired sectors across the country.
France24 via the AFP quoted SBM Intelligence on the scale of Nigeria’s kidnapping industry, describing it as a multi-million-dollar enterprise. AfricaLix published an analysis of the Kainji Lake rescue operation, the country’s largest single-day hostage release. Additionally, TheCable featured Atiku Abubakar’s criticism of President Tinubu’s economic policies, in which the former Vice President cited data from SBM Intelligence.