The week ahead - On the line
Nigeria's bishops criticise the govt as troops get pay rises; Ghana's mixed economy, Ivory Coast scandal and Sahel warning.
Events across Africa this week - from Catholic bishops criticising Nigeria’s leader on security, the country’s military gets a pay rise, creative financial policy setting in Abuja and a shake-up in insurance to mixed economic news from Ghana, a corruption scandal in Côte d’Ivoire and early warning signs in the Sahel - straddled the line between the hope of comfort and the sceptre of calamity.
Chart of the week
Podcast
This week, Veronica discusses with David Olujinmi about Nigeria raising military salaries by 30-80% just as Catholic bishops critique governance, and Mali releasing its former PM. Will pay rise and political gestures fix deeper structural failures?
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Video
SBM Intel’s Cheta Nwanze was on News Central TV to analyse the impact of the resumed Iran War on energy security, oil prices, and the global economy.
What we’re following this week
Emeritus Cardinal Onaiyekan dismissed the Presidency’s criticism of Catholic bishops following their tense meeting with President Tinubu. The exchange came as Osun SSG Teslim Igbalaye was arrested and EFCC froze the state’s accounts over a $7.75 million probe. Tinubu denied knowledge of the account freeze.
Nigeria’s National Economic Council has approved a $4.5 billion facility to refinance NNPC’s $3.3 billion pre‑export finance loan. The deal clears the remaining $1.5 billion balance and provides an extra $3 billion to strengthen external reserves and fund infrastructure. Better terms free an additional 11,250 barrels daily for the federation.
The DSS has warned of planned Boko Haram attacks in Adamawa and Borno following a reported ceasefire collapse. In Zamfara, troops repelled an attack, killing several terrorists and rescuing nine civilians, but lost one officer each from the Army and Police. President Tinubu approved 30-80% pay rises for 250,000 military personnel from September.
Nigeria’s insurance regulator says 43 companies have met the new minimum capital requirements under the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act 2025. Eight others await final verification. The reform, requiring between ₦15bn and ₦45bn per class, aims to strengthen financial resilience, improve policyholder protection and support long-term investment.
Fitch Solutions forecasts Ghana’s inflation to reach 9% by end-2026 and 13.2% in 2027 as the cedi weakens, despite stronger economic growth of 5.7%. The country posted a record GH¢148.3 billion trade surplus in 2025, driven by gold exports, but reliance on primary commodities remains a concern.
Ahoua Don Mello, a former presidential candidate, has called for an independent investigation into the alleged embezzlement of CFA39 billion at Côte d’Ivoire’s General Directorate of Taxes. He urged transparency and accountability, and recommended using digital technologies including AI and blockchain to strengthen public financial management.
A UN draft report found Boeing 727 aircraft transported weapons, drones and up to 2,000 Colombian mercenaries for Sudan’s RSF via Chad. Separately, Human Rights Watch said Russian Africa Corps airstrikes killed eight civilians, including three children, in Mali. Former Prime Minister Moussa Mara was released after a one-year prison sentence.
Media mentions
This week, SBM Intelligence data featured prominently across Nigerian media. The Guardian cited SBM’s report that 4,722 people were kidnapped between July 2024 and June 2025, with abductors demanding ₦48 billion and families paying ₦2.57 billion in ransom. In an editorial on military pay, Punch referenced SBM’s tracking of 5,091 deaths from violence in Q2 2026. Guardian Nigeria also referenced SBM’s finding that 5,091 deaths occurred in Q2 2026, including 304 security personnel, in their reporting on state policing. FIJ highlighted the SBM Intelligence report on stolen police rifles. TheCable’s piece on mob justice cited SBM data tracking 391 deaths in 279 mob violence incidents between 2019 and May 2022.