The week ahead - Reckonings
It was a week of reckonings—quiet exits, loud protests, and oil-stained ledgers. In Nigeria, President Tinubu consolidated federal tax control under a new agency, while a long-simmering feud in Rivers State finally gave way to an uneasy political truce. But as peace was brokered in Port Harcourt, the ruling party’s top leader bowed out quietly. Nigeria’s Senate turned attention to the NNPC’s staggering audit gaps, while Peter Obi declared his renewed intention to run. Meanwhile, Ghana’s banks reported slimmer bad debt margins. Further afield, Kenya relived a deadly déjà vu on the streets.
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Report
Youth gang violence in Nigeria is a worsening threat, particularly in Southern states. From January 2020 to March 2025, SBM Intel recorded 1,686 deaths from 909 incidents involving groups like Black Axe and Eiye. Rivers, Lagos, Edo, Ogun, and Delta are hotspots, driven by rivalries over territory and illegal taxation, not just poverty. While anti-cultism laws exist, weak enforcement persists. A comprehensive strategy addressing unemployment, political exploitation, arms flow, and law enforcement is crucial for lasting solutions.
What we are watching this week
President Tinubu has enacted four tax reform bills, effective January 1, 2026, creating the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) as the sole federal tax collector. This move, aiming for modern economic growth, centralises tax administration, removing collection powers from other agencies and allowing a six-month transition.
Nigeria's Senate demands that the NNPC explain $137 billion audit discrepancies, while NNPC reported a $685 million May profit and 1.745 million bpd oil production, targeting two million bpd by 2025.
A political truce has been reached in Nigeria's Rivers State following President Bola Tinubu's mediation between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara. Both factions agreed to end hostilities, with Fubara reportedly conceding no 2027 re-election bid and accepting Wike's political leadership.
Peter Obi confirmed his 2027 presidential bid, pledging a single term consistent with power rotation, and prioritising governance. Meanwhile, an opposition coalition including Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai adopted the ADC as their platform, though it faces internal dissent. Rotimi Amaechi also joined ADC after quitting the APC.
National APC Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje unexpectedly resigned last Friday, citing health, but internal party tensions and alleged financial demands were key factors. Deputy Chairman Ali Bukar Dalori has been appointed as his successor.
Ghanaian banks wrote off $63 million in bad debt by April 2025, a significant drop from previous years, as the non-performing loan ratio improved to 23.6%, signalling better asset quality despite elevated credit risk.
Sixteen people were killed in Kenya's anti-government protests, mostly from police gunfire, on the anniversary of last year's deadly tax demonstrations. Meanwhile, seven people died in Togo amidst protests against President Gnassingbé, with human rights groups alleging excessive force.