The week ahead - Dissonance
Nigeria saw tax reform progress amid opposition struggles and a base attack, yet oil output rose. Ghana's strong cedi masked economic issues, while US aid policies sparked controversy.
Dissonance echoed through the week’s headlines. In Nigeria, President Tinubu secured a win with the passage of key tax reform bills, even as the fractured opposition struggled with internal divisions. While insurgents overran a military base, crude oil production saw an uptick, aided by a lull in theft. Across the border in Ghana, the cedi's resilience belied deeper woes, and millions risk acute hunger across the Sahel. Meanwhile, the US doubled down on selective solidarity.
Chart of the week
Podcast
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Video
Nigeria's tax system faces critical challenges, and President Tinubu's proposed reforms, which have now passed in the National Assembly, could be a game-changer. In this video, originally published in January, and based on this December 2024 report, we dived into the complexities behind the debate around tax reform.
What we are following this week
The World Food Programme warns that 52 million people in West and Central Africa face hunger in the next three months, with 3 million at emergency levels. Conflict displaces 10 million, worsened by inflation, high fuel costs, and extreme weather.
Islamist militants attacked a Nigerian army base in Marte, Borno, capturing soldiers and ammunition. After retreating to Dikwa, Nigerian troops counter-attacked and retook the base. Five soldiers died, others are missing, and anti-mine vehicles were destroyed in the surprise hour-long assault.
Nigeria's crude oil production increased to a two-month high of 1.486 mbpd in April, still below OPEC's quota. Meanwhile, marketers warned of potential petrol price hikes to ₦1,500/litre if imports are banned, a claim disputed by Dangote Refinery.
Changes to Nigeria's tax system are on the horizon after President Tinubu's tax reforms sailed through the Senate. After passing all four bills, they'll reconcile their version with the House's. Then, it's off to the President for his signature.
Nigeria's Labour Party indefinitely suspended Abia Governor Alex Otti, Senator Ireti Kingibe, and four others for alleged anti-party activities following a Disciplinary Committee report. They can no longer represent the LP, with INEC and other relevant bodies notified.
Ghana missed its treasury bill target for the second week despite a strong cedi. The government aims to cut its $2.5 billion IPP debt by year-end after restructuring $1 billion. Utility collection issues are pushing private sector involvement in billing.
59 Afrikaners received expedited US refugee status, citing disputed racial discrimination in South Africa. This sparked criticism of racial bias amid broader refugee restrictions. Meanwhile, Zambia cautioned diplomats against media interference after a US envoy revealed medicine theft, leading to a $50M aid reduction and arrests.