The week ahead - Flowing forward
Nigeria's telco gains coverage, naira stabilises beyond oil, fuel price war erupts, Ghana boosts gold reserves, while Ethiopia expands energy and regional influence.
This week, the region showed subtle signs of flowing forward. In Nigeria, a struggling telco finally got a coverage lifeline, the naira started behaving like it’s outgrown its oil addiction, even as its cards were reinstated for international transactions. Meanwhile, a price war at the pump is fuelling fresh competition, and the gap widened between thriving DisCos and struggling GenCos. Further west, Ghana topped up its gold reserves, while Ethiopia solidified its energy ambitions and geopolitical footprint in the Horn of Africa.
Chart of the week
Video
Police brutality in Nigeria has escalated, with over 800 deaths linked to security forces between 2020 and 2025. SBM's security analyst, Kehinde Giwa, spoke to News Central TV and broke down this alarming trend and the growing concerns over police misconduct.
…and here is the chart which spawned the conversation.
Podcast
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What are we following this week?
Nigeria’s naira is decoupling from oil prices due to past undervaluation, rising non-oil exports, and reduced fuel imports—boosted by Dangote Refinery’s operations. After a 41% drop in 2024, the currency is stabilising near ₦1,556/$, aided by FX reforms, dollar weakness, and investor confidence.
Nigeria’s energy sector faces upheaval as Dangote Refinery slashes petrol prices to ₦820/litre, triggering competitive cuts by MRS and NNPC. Amid price disparities, the Senate investigates NMDPRA’s Farouk Ahmed for alleged corruption, while public protests demand regulatory transparency.
Nigeria’s power sector shows uneven results: DisCos report higher revenues, while generators like Geregu Power see declines. NERC notes a 13.7% rise in Q1 2025 subsidies to $351 billion due to frozen tariffs. DisCos remitted 95.79% of NBET’s $242 billion invoice, but NERC warns of rising costs without tariff adjustments.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has approved a three-year national roaming agreement between 9mobile and MTN Nigeria, benefiting 9mobile’s 2.97 million subscribers. Announced on the Nigerian Exchange, this partnership will enhance coverage and service quality for 9mobile users by leveraging MTN’s network.
Several Nigerian banks, including GTBank, First Bank, and UBA, have resumed international transactions on Naira debit cards, with varying limits (e.g., GTBank: $1,000 quarterly; First Bank: $500 monthly). Wema Bank reactivated its ALAT and Visa cards. This signals FX stability, reversing 2022’s $20 limits, and aims to restore confidence in cross-border payments for individuals and businesses.
Ghana’s gold reserves climbed to 32.99 tonnes in June 2025, up 8.05% since January, bolstering forex reserves and cedi stability under the Bank of Ghana’s domestic purchase scheme. President Mahama launched the GOLDBOD Task Force, armed with body cameras, to curb illegal mining, though scepticism persists over enforcement challenges.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has declared Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), complete. Spanning 1,800m and standing 175m high, the $4 billion project aims to produce 6,000MW, boost development, and ease regional tensions. Inauguration is set for September.