The week ahead - Rainy fronts
A rainy week in Africa saw tragedy in Nigeria, economic shifts in Ghana, protests in the Ivory Coast, and a major trade announcement from China.
It was a rainy week—not quite cats and dogs, but wailings, promises, and protests across Africa. In Nigeria, tragedy struck in the country’s food basket, sowing fresh seeds of violence, solar imports collapsed under a protectionist push, even as the region’s largest oil refiner rolled out a new distribution scheme. Meanwhile, the real estate sector remained locked in bureaucracy. Further afield, Ghana’s economy flashed signs of a rebound, protesters rallied behind a barred candidate in Abidjan, and China extended a sweeping trade gesture to its African partners.
Chart of the week
Video
Our Managing Partner and Head of Research, Ikemesit Effiong, was on News Central to discuss the Iran-Israel Conflict. Tensions are rising not just in the Middle East but in Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. With missiles flying thousands of miles away, the ripple effects are already being felt through soaring oil prices, shifts in security, and changing geopolitical alliances.
What does this conflict mean for Nigeria?
Could rising fuel import costs put additional strain on the economy?
What risks are posed to the Nigerian diaspora in conflict-prone regions?
And how does this add to an already fragile global economic outlook?
Podcast
Click here to listen. You can also search for “SBM Intelligence, the week ahead” wherever you get your podcasts.
What are we following this week?
A deadly attack in Yelwata, Benue State, reportedly killed at least 100 people, mostly farmers. Amnesty International urged Nigeria's government to end the unchecked violence, warning of worsening displacement and threats to food security as rural communities remain unprotected.
China will remove import tariffs for 53 African countries, expanding a previous deal and strengthening its position as Africa's top trading partner. Nigeria is poised to benefit significantly, leveraging its recent trade surplus and growing diversification in non-oil exports.
Nigeria's real estate sector is crippled by bureaucracy and high costs, leaving over 90% of land unregistered. This "dead capital," estimated at up to $900 billion, hinders credit access, hinders development, and exacerbates economic inequality.
Dangote Refinery's new distribution scheme aims to lower fuel costs and inflation by utilising 4,000 CNG tankers and offering free logistics. Hailed by experts as an economic boost, the move has sparked concern among some fuel marketers over potential job losses.
Nigeria's solar panel imports declined by 89% in Q1 2025, a result of the government's push for local production. With manufacturing capacity now at 600 megawatts, Nigeria plans to ban imports to boost its domestic solar industry.
Ghana's economy showed strong signs of recovery, with 5.3% GDP growth in Q1 2025 and an upgrade in credit ratings. However, significant challenges persist, including a reported $11.4 billion loss from gold smuggling over the last five years.
Thousands of opposition supporters in Ivory Coast protested the exclusion of their leader, Tidjane Thiam, from the presidential election list. Barred over his former dual nationality, his party submitted a letter demanding his reinstatement, accusing the judiciary of bias.